基于非参数核密度估计与数值天气预报的风速预测修正方法

Correction method of wind speed prediction based on non-parametric kernel density estimation and numerical weather prediction

提出一种风速预测偏差修正方法。建立基于非参数核密度估计的风速修正模型,利用预测点之前一段时间内风速的初始预测误差来估计预测时刻的预测误差,从而对初始风速预测结果进行修正;结合数值天气预报法建立风速相位误差修正模型,有效减小风速预测的相位误差,在一定程度上防止风速突变拐点处"误修正"的出现。某地区实际风速数据的预测仿真结果表明,所提方法可有效降低初始风速预测偏差。

A correction method of wind speed prediction is proposed. The wind speed correction model based on non-parametric kernel density estimation is built,the initial wind speed prediction error during the period before the prediction point is adopted to estimate the prediction error at the prediction point,thus the initial wind speed prediction result is corrected. The numerical weather prediction method is used to build the correction model of wind speed phase error for effectively reducing the phase error of wind speed prediction,which avoids the phenomenon of error correction at the wind speed inflection point to a certain degree. The simulative results of actual wind speed prediction show that the proposed method can effectively reduce the initial wind speed prediction deviation.