冷战后美国延伸威慑战略模式探析--基于地缘政治的视角

The American Model of Extended Deterrence Strategy in the Post-Cold War Period:A Geo-Political Perspective

通过将核武器作为慑止他国攻击其海外军事力量和盟国的工具,美国维系了以自身为核心的全球同盟体系,捍卫了霸权地位。文章认为,冷战后,美国的延伸威慑战略具有地区差异性,基于安全承诺的制度化水平和用于威慑的核力量构成的不同,可以概括为欧洲模式、亚太模式和中东模式。这三种模式的延伸威慑战略的可信性依次降低。冷战后,美国延伸威慑战略实施的地缘环境受其自身核力量的削弱、地区层面威慑对象的多元化以及武器技术的扩散三方面因素的影响而恶化,进而造成盟国对其延伸威慑的可信性提出质疑。文章预测,美国延伸威慑战略的三种模式今后将分别在相应地区面临以下挑战:欧洲地区的危机稳定性下降,亚太地区的核扩散风险上升,以及中东地区的美阿同盟可能发生"漂流"。造成美国陷入当前困境的根本原因在于,冷战后美国依旧奉行冷战思维,追求霸权主导地位和实力上的绝对优势,使得其延伸威慑战略不仅出现了目标与手段的失衡,而且存在逻辑与表述上的矛盾。

By preventing nuclear weapons from being used to attack any of its overseas military deployments or its military allies,the U.S.maintains its position at the center of its global alliance system,and safeguards its hegemonic position.It is argued here that in the Post-Cold War period,the U.S.differentiates across regions in terms of its approach to extended deterrence,and that this is manifested in terms of the level of institutionalization of its security commitments as well as the makeup of its nuclear deterrence arsenal.Three distinct models can be identified:a European model,an Asian model and a Middle Eastern model.The credibility of these three extended deterrence strategies has continued to decrease over time.This article predicts that the three models of America's extended deterrence strategy will face the following challenges in each respective region in the future:in Europe,the ability to stabilize crises will deteriorate;in Asia and the Pacific,the threat of nuclear proliferation will increase;and in the Middle East,America's alliance with its Arab partners may drift.The fundamental reason for this present dilemma is American insistence on continuing to follow Cold War thinking in the Post-Cold War era,its continued pursuit of hegemonic status and obsession with maintaining an absolute power advantage.This has caused an imbalance between objectives and means with respect to extended deterrence strategy,as well as contradictions in the underlying logic.