基于扰动模糊聚类的项目组合选择

A Project Portfolio Selection Model Based on Disturbing-valued Fuzzy Clustering

研究了兼顾组织战略与项目目标协同特性的项目组合选择问题,提出以项目战略贡献相似度为组合构建依据、以组合战略贡献度为排序依据的新思路。将战略分解为战略需求指标,评价项目的战略贡献度;考虑决策信息的不确定性,引入扰动模糊理论,结合管理学含义提出扰动隶属区间数值化公式、项目战略贡献相似度的计算方法,构建不确定环境下的项目组合选择模型。针对模型提出了改进EM算法进行求解,用示例验证了方法的有效性。

The dual goals of project portfolio selection as maintaining the synergy of project portfolios and maximizing strategic realization was indentified. A new perspective of constructing project portfolio alternatives was proposed according to the projects＇ objective synergies and ranking them based on the overall strategic contribution degree. The organizational strategy was firstly cascaded to multiple indexes for project evaluation. To integrate the uncertainties in decision parameters, it quantifies the bias between estimation value and practical results by introducing disturbing-valued fuzzy theory. Disturbance removal function and strategic contribution similarity calculation function were proposed regarding the managerial implications. A modified EM algorithm was proposed to solve the model and an example is illustrated to verify its validity.