居民通胀预期区域相关关系、传导机制和空间异质性——基于社会网络分析方法

Spatial Correlation,Transmission Mechanism,and Spatial Heterogeneity of Households' Inflation Expectations in China——Based on the social network analysis method

运用社会网络分析方法,从区域角度研究中国各省居民通胀预期的区域相关关系、传导机制和空间异质性。研究表明,中国各省居民通胀预期区域相关关系网络联系紧密并且各省在网络中的地位和作用不同;居民通胀预期具有明显的梯度效应,各省可被划分为4个板块;地理位置差异、第三产业占GDP比例差异、进出口占GDP比例差异、受教育水平差异、金融产业增加值差异和消费水平差异都与通胀预期异质性高度相关,经济结构差异是通胀预期异质性最重要的影响因素。

This paper investigates the spatial correlation, transmission mechanism and spatial heterogeneity of householdsinflation expectations in China from the regional perspective and by the social network analysis method.Some conclusions are drawn. There exist close ties in the spatial correlation net work of the households ＇inflation expectations of provinces in China and the positions and roles of prow inces in the network are different.There is an obvious gradient effect in the households^inflation expec- tations and these provinces can be divided into four blocks.The geographic difference, the tertiary in- dustry to GDP ratio difference, the imports and exports to GDP ratio difference, the education level difference, the financial industry value-added difference, and the consumption level difference are highly correlated with the heterogeneity of inflation expectations.The difference of economic structure is the most significant factors influencing the heterogeneity of inflation expectations.