奥肯定律在中国的适用性研究

Applicability of Okun's Law in China

采用1978—2015年的数据对经典奥肯模型进行简单验证,发现经典的奥肯定律在我国不适用。考虑到奥肯定律提出时并没有限定前提条件,认为上述验证的失效可能源于对隐含成立条件的违背,不能据此判定奥肯定律在我国失效。在此基础上之上通过将隐含条件设置成变量纳入修正的奥肯模型中,再次对修正的奥肯模型进行实际数据的检验,结果发现在将主要隐含条件显性化后,奥肯定律所描述的失业率与经济增长之间的线性关系在我国仍然不成立,以此得出了奥肯关系在我国失效的结论。同时得证了劳动力供给的过快增长是影响我国失业的重要原因,基于以上分析提出了缓解我国失业问题的相关建议。

Okun＇s law is a rule of thumb that reflects the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate, and there is a question of whether the law is applicable in China. In this paper, based on the data of 1978-2015, the classic Okun＇s model is tested and found that the classic Okun＇s law is not applicable in China. However, the failure of the above verification may derived from the violation of the implicit conditions. It is not possible to judge the failure of Okun＇s law in our country just by above verification. On the basis of above considerations, the modified Okun＇s model tested again using actual data by setting the implicit conditions into the model. Conclusion is that the linear relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth described by Okun＇s Law is still not true in our country. That is to say, Okun＇s Law does not apply in China. At the same time, it shows that the rapid growth of labor force is an important factor affecting the unemployment. Some suggestions are putting forward to alleviate the problem of unemployment in China based on above analysis.