基于最大Lyapunov指数的公路沉降预测

Forecasting for Settlement of Highway on Lyapunov Exponents

根据混沌理论具有分析非线性动态系统混沌特性的特点,对公路路基沉降量相关时间序列进行了分析和研究.在相空间重构的基础上,利用C-C方法求嵌入时延与嵌入窗、G-P方法求嵌入维数;应用小数据量法计算公路沉降量相关时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数,并进行混沌特性分析,结果显示累积沉降量符合混沌特性.最后对短期沉降量进行了预测.

Based on the chaos theory,the characteristics of chaos in nonlinear dynamic systems were applied to analysis and research on the time series of the settlement of highway subgrade. On the basis of phase space reconstruction,C-C method was used to find the embedded delay and the embedding window,and G-P method was applied to figure out the embedding dimension. Small data method was applied to calculate the maximum Lyapunov exponent of the time series of highway settlement,the analysis of chaotic characteristics was conducted. The results demonstrated that the accumulated settlement was in accordance with the chaotic characteristic. Finally,the short term settlement was predicted successfully.