产业结构动态调整与地区创业活动

The Impacts of Dynamic Adjustment of Industrial Structure on Regional Entrepreneurial Activity

产业结构调整,无论是新旧行业自然更替,还是政策作用,都会影响支持地区经济活动的创业活动,影响既有正向的,也有负向的,需通过实证来检测产业结构调整与转型升级对地区创业活动产生什么样的影响。采用Churning指数测量地区产业结构的动态调整速度,从创业机会、创业资源、创业环境以及创业风险等方面研究产业结构调整影响地区创业活动的机制和路径。以广东省为例,利用各地级城市2005-2014年的面板数据,运用系统GMM模型估计产业结构调整对创业活动的影响。研究结果表明:产业结构的快速调整在短期内会对经济社会带来一定的冲击,从而不利于地区创业活动,但是长期却有利于地区创业水平的提高。通过区分产业结构调整的城市内部和城市之间两种情况,还发现这种短期的不利影响主要来自于城市之间的产业结构调整,相比之下,城市内部产业自我调整所带来的冲击较小,甚至会显著地促进地区创业活动。

What is the impact of vast industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in China on regional entrepreneurial activities？ Using the city panel data of Guangdong province from 2005 to 2014 and the system GMM model,this paper empirically examines the effects of dynamic adjustment of industrial structure,which is measured by Churning index,on entrepreneurial activities,through factors such as entrepreneurial opportunities,entrepreneurial resources,entrepreneurial environment and entrepreneurial risk. The results demonstrate that rapid adjustment of industrial structure may have different impacts on entrepreneurial activities in short-term and in long-term. In current period,it may take some shock on economy and society,then generate negative effects on entrepreneurial activities,while it leads to more entrepreneurial activities in the long run. Moreover,by dividing industrial structure adjustment between cities and self-adjustment within the city,this paper finds the short-term adverse impacts mainly attribute to the shock of city external forces,namely industrial structure adjustment between cities,while self-adjustment of industry within the city will significantly promote regional entrepreneurial activities.