新型城镇化建设的水资源支撑力评价

Evaluation on water resource supporting capacity for new-type urbanization construction

水资源是区域新型城镇化建设的最重要的资源支撑,开展新型城镇化的水资源支撑力研究意义重大。以新型城镇化建设经济社会协调发展和水资源供应作为两个评价子系统,以新型城镇化内涵和水资源供应构建相应的三级评价指标体系,以复合系统协调度模型作为评价方法,以四川省达州市为例,开展新型城镇化建设的静态和动态水资源支撑力的评价分析。实证分析结果表明,复合系统协调度模型能够从整体上刻画水资源对新型城镇化建设的支撑力变化趋势,但还不能精确刻画支撑力大小和单一指标的支撑贡献度。从静态和动态两个方面来看,达州市的水资源对新型城镇化建设的支撑力都是足够的,但是个别年份有波动,因此需尽量保持水资源系统的平衡。

Water resource is the most important resource that supports the new-type urbanization construction. It is of great significance to develop studies relating to water resources supporting capacity. Taking the coordinated development of economy and society and water resources supply as two evaluation sub-systems,and through establishing a three-level evaluation index system,and combing the method of compound systems coordination model,the evaluation analysis of both static and dynamic water resources supporting capacities on new-type urbanization is developed. The results indicate that the compounding systems coordination model generally describes the variation trend of water resources supporting capacity on new-type urbanization,but is not accurate enough to recognize the actual capacity or how much contribution of each index can make. Despite the fluctuations in some years,it is adequate for water resources in Dazhou to support the urbanization construction from both static and dynamic aspects; hence,balance should be maintained in water resources system.