基于海上钻完井数据物流资源预测的实证研究

Empirical study of logistics resource prediction based on the offshore drilling and completion data

长期以来,由于海上钻完井物资供应缺乏有效的分析与预测系统,导致物流公司无法预先科学、有效地安排相关物流资源,资源利用率和服务质量得不到提升。通过对海上钻完井历史数据相关关联关系的分析研究,采用合适的算法,研究出了适合中海油能源物流有限公司的物流资源预测模型,并通过理论验证和数据验证相结合的方法论证了该预测模型的有效性,以指导物料需求预测及物流资源预测软件系统的研发。

For a long time, due to the lack of effective analysis and forecasting system of offshore drilling and material supply, the logistics company can not advance the scientific and effective arrangement of related logistics resources, resource utilization and service quality can not be improved.Based on the analysis of the correlation relationship between the historical data of offshore drilling and completion, it present the appropriate algorithm and designs the suitable model of logistics resource forecasting.Combining theoretical verification and data verification, it demonstrates the effectiveness of the forecasting model.This method is useful to guide the material demand forecast and logistics resource prediction software system research and development.