生态文明时空演变特征与影响因素——以广东省为例

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influential Factors of Ecological Civilization——A Case of Guangdong Province

文章在已有的生态文明综合评价指标体系基础上,运用因子分析、马尔科夫链和面板数据回归分析方法,在GIS技术支持下,基于广东21个地级市2000年、2004年、2008年、2012年4个时间断面数据,分析了生态文明综合水平的时空格局演变及其影响因素。研究结果表明:从时序格局上看,2000-2004年、2004-2008年、2008-2012年三时期时序演变差距不断扩大,2000-2004年和2004-2008年两个时期更为显著,数据表明高等水平地级市转移速度低于低等水平地级市,主要转移趋势是在中等和低等水平之间;从空间分布上看,生态文明发展状况的高等和较高水平地级市多位于珠三角地区,而中等和低等水平地级市多位于粤东、粤西和粤北;生态文明时空演变的影响因素与常住人口数、第二产业增加值、第三产业增加值正相关,与第一产业增加值负相关。经济增长和居民消费量变动虽然会有一定的影响,但结果并不显著。

Based on the existing comprehensive evaluation index system of ecological civilization and the data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong province in 4 time sections of 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012, the paper, with the support of GIS, applies the methods of factor analysis, Markov chain and panel data regression to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the comprehensive level of ecological civilization and its influential factors. The results show that： From the point of sequential pattern, the gaps of development level on temporal evolution analysis extend during three periods of 2000-2004, 2004-2008 and 2008-2012, and they are more significant in the periods of 2000-2004 and 2004-2008, the data indicates that the changing speed of cities staying in high levels is slow than that of cities in low levels, and the main changing trend is in the middle and lower levels; From the point of spatial distribution, the cities with high and relatively high levels ecological civilization development mainly concentrate in the Pearl River Delta region, whereas the cities with middle and low levels mainly concentrate in the eastern, western and northern regions of the province; The influential factors of spatio-tem- poral evolution of ecological civilization are positively correlated with the resident population, the secondary industry added value and the tertiary industry added value, and negatively correlated with the first industry added value. The economic growth has an impact on resident＇ s consumption changes, but not significant.