林业生态经济发展动态趋势:理论模型与区域差异

Dynamic Trend of Forestry Eco-economic Development:Theoretical Model and Regional Differences

林业生态经济是"两山论"在林业发展领域的理论阐释和实践运用。文章基于Daly的生态经济理论,构建了林业生态经济发展的理论模型,揭示了林业生态与林业经济发展之间的转化、平衡和可持续的动态依存关系,并依据两者之间的转化规律,构建林业生态经济发展评价指标体系,采用信息熵值法的实证框架,测算中国林业生态经济发展指数,识别各区域林业生态经济发展的动态趋势与差异。结果表明:总体上,中国林业生态经济发展总体趋势向好,但尚未到达可持续发展拐点,森林资源的转化利用率仍然较低,森林资源供给能力与需求张力不匹配的矛盾仍未解决;区域上,各地林业生态经济发展的动态趋势差异较大,南方林区的发展递增式趋优,东北和西南林区稳健式趋良,中部林区发展趋势稍弱,其中,山东、江苏和甘肃3个省份在考察期间林业生态环境水平呈现下降趋势。

Forestry ecological economy is the theoretical interpretation and practical application of ＂two mountains theory＂ in the field of forestry development. Based on Daly＇ s eco-economic theory, this paper constructs the theoretical model of forestry eco-economic development, reveals the transforming, balanced and sustained dynamic relationship between forestry ecology and forestry economic development. Moreover, the paper, according to the transformation rule between the two, builds the forestry eco-economie development evaluation index system, and applies the empirical framework of information entropy method to measure the index of forestry eco-eeonomic development in China and identify the dynamic trend and differences of forestry eco-eeonomic development in different regions. The results show that： The overall trend of forestry eco-economic development in China is getting better, but still not yet reaching the inflection point of sustainable development. The conversion rate of forest resources is still low, and the contradiction between supply of forest resources and demand tension is still unresolved; In the region, the dynamic trend of forestry eco-economic development is quite different, and the development of southern forest area is incrementally optimizing. The northeastern and southwestern forest areas are becoming more robust and the cen- tral forest development trend is weaker. Among them, Shandong, Jiangsu and Gansu during the study period, the forestry ecological envi- ronment level of the three provinces presents a decreasing trend.