上海市浦东新区手足口病与气象因素相关性研究

Correlation between Hand-foot-mouth Disease and Meteorological Factors in Pudong Shanghai

目的利用2010年1月—2012年12月上海市浦东新区手足口病发病资料和气象环境资料,进行Pearson相关分析和逐步回归分析,探讨了上海市浦东新区手足口病发病和气象环境因素之间的关系,为手足口病的防治提供科学依据。方法整理上海市浦东新区2010—2012年手足口病发病数据进行描述性分析,对可能影响手足口病的气温、气压、相对湿度、风速、周日照时数、降水量和环境因素PM_(2.5)等气象环境因子,运用Pearson相关分析和多元线性回归分析进行相关性分析。结果手足口病周发病例数和周平均气温(r=0.334,P<0.001)、最高气温(r=0.367,P<0.001)、最低气温(r=0.327,P<0.001)、平均相对湿度(r=0.313,P<0.001)及累计降水量(r=0.159,P=0.048)呈正相关,与平均气压(r=-0.444,P<0.001)呈负相关,而与最小相对湿度,平均风速,日照时数以及PM_(2.5)相关性不显著。与气压和最低气温之间的线性依存关系具有统计学意义,且呈负相关(r<0,P<0.05),与周平均气温,最高气温,平均相对湿度以及累计降水量的线性依存关系无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论气象因素与手足口病的发生有较密切的关系,要做好手足口病的防治工作要采取综合性措施,结合社会、个人和气象环境等因素防治手足口病。

Objective To investigate the relationship between the morbidity of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological environment factors in Pudong New Area in order to provide a scientific basis for the prevention of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods The morbidity of hand-foot-mouth disease and the data for meteorological environment factors were collected from January 2010 to December 2012 in Pudong New Area. The data were analyzed by Pearson analysis and multiple linear stepwise regression of SPSS 20. 0 software. Results The morbidity of hand-foot-mouth disease was positively correlated with the average temperature of the week（ r = 0. 334,P 0. 001）,the highest temperature（ r = 0. 367,P 0. 001）,the lowest temperature（ r = 0. 327,P 0. 001）,average relative humidity（ r = 0. 313,P 0. 001） and accumulative precipitation（ r = 0. 159,P = 0. 048）. In addition the morbidity of hand-foot-mouth disease was negatively correlated with average atmospheric pressure（ r =-0. 444,P 0. 001）. There was no significant relationship between the morbidity of hand-food-mouth disease with the lowest relative humidity,average air speed,duration of sunshine and PM_（2. 5）. There was a significant negative linear relationship between the morbidity of hand-food-mouth disease with atmospheric pressure and the lowest temperature（ r 0,P 0. 05） analyzed by multiple linear stepwise regression. No significant relationship was found between the morbidity with the average temperature of the week,the highest temperature,average relative humidity as well as accumulative precipitation（ P 0. 05）. Conclusions There was a close relationship between the morbidity of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological environment factors. Comprehensive measures integrated with the improvement of social,individual and meteorological environment factors should be taken to prevent hand-foot-mouth disease.