基于AHP和GIS的云南省干旱灾害风险区划研究

Risk Zoning of Drought Disaster Based on AHP and GIS in Yunnan Province

为提高云南省干旱灾害风险评估及应急管理能力,基于自然灾害风险理论,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露度和防灾减灾能力4个方面,考虑气象、地理环境和社会因素的综合作用,构建了云南省旱灾风险评估模型。采用层次分析法计算各评估指标权重,再基于Arc GIS绘制出云南省旱灾风险等级区划图。结果表明,干旱灾害风险的空间分布呈片状形式,东北、东南部高于西北、西南部。高、次高风险区主要分布于东北部的昭通、会泽及东南部的泸西、广南等地;中等风险区包括中部大部分地区及大理、保山等地;低、次低风险区在西北部的贡山、维西及西南部的景洪、澜沧等区域。利用干旱灾情数据验证表明,评估结果能真实反映云南省旱灾损失情况,对进一步开展干旱风险评估工作的研究有借鉴意义。

In order to improve the drought disasters risk assessment and emergency management capability of Yunnan, based on the natural disaster risk theory, a risk drought disaster assessment model, in which four indexes including the hazard of the disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of disaster-prone environment, exposure of drought disaster -affected bodies and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction are considered, is established by considering the comprehensive effect of meteorology, geographical environment and social factors. The AHP method is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index and the drought disaster risk degree zoning map is drawn based on ArcGIS. The results show that： the drought disaster risk zone is spatially distributed in ＂sheet＂ shape, that in northeast and southeast is higher than that in northwest and southwest; the high and sub-high drought disaster risk areas contain Zhaotong, Huize in northeast of Yunnan and Luxi, Guangnan in southeastern of Yunnan. Dali, Baoshan and most of the central areas are medium risk areas; the low and sub-low risk areas contain Gongshan, Weixi in northwest of Yunan and Jinghong, Lancang in southwest of Yunnan. The result of comparing the evaluation result with the total economic losses of drought disaster areas shows that the model can reflect the damage characteristic of drought in Yunnan and provide advisory advices for further study of drought disaster risk assessment.