“全面二孩”政策背景下学前教育资源供给需求预测

Predictive Study on the Supply and Demand of Preschool Education Resource under the Background of the Universal Two-child Policy

从学前教育发展的角度出发,结合人口学的相关统计数据,采用数学领域的灰色预测法,分析近年来我国学前教育的发展变化情况,预测出"全面二孩"政策实施八年内我国的人口出生率和出生人口数量,就"全面二孩"政策实施后学前教育资源配置方面可能会出现的公共设施不完善、师资力量缺口大等问题进行探讨,为"全面二孩"政策更好地实施提供科学预测人口增长趋势,调整幼儿园布局、及时加强幼师队伍建设,弥补师资缺口、加大财政投入,确保稳健发展等建议。

Universal Two-- child Policy was proposed to cope with the aggravating trend of aging population. Based on the demographic statistics and the development of preschool education, the paper predicts the birth rate and newly born population in eight years after the implementation of the Universal Two--child Policy with the mathematic method of grey prediction, and probes into the possible problems in education resource allocation. A series of suggestions are proposed at the end accordingly.