基于时差系数的城市原水需水量预测应用

Research and Application of Urban Water Demand Forecasting Based on Time Difference Coefficient

以上海市青草沙原水智能调度管理系统为背景,采用基于改进粒子群的最小二乘支持向量机为原水需水量预测的方法,得到了较为准确的预测效果.通过对需水量数据进行特征分析,发现在节假日需水量预测与实际供水量有较大误差.建立基于时差系数的小时级与天级原水需水量预测模型,用以改善和优化原天级预测模型.最后,结合水厂的实际运行情况,将优化改善后的预测模型应用于水厂,为其提供更为精确的需水量预测并取得较好结果.

The support of water supply system has been a concerned focus of urban construction. The accurate prediction of short term water quantity is important for the whole water system operation and maintenance. In this paper, the intelligent scheduling management system for raw water based on least square support vector machine with improved particle swarm optimization is proposed by means of the project Shanghai Qingcaosha Intelligent Raw Water Dispatch and Management System. After analyzing the characteristics of water quantity data, the results of water quantity prediction have a big deviation from the actual water supply during the holidays. So forecasting model of daily and hourly water demand is built based on time difference coefficient to optimize the original prediction model. Combined with the actual operation and process conditions of water plant, this optimized model is applied to water plant to provide more accurate water supply scheduling suggestion.