经常账户失衡内在根源:财政赤字、人口结构、经济增长

The Internal Cause of Current Account Imbalance: Fiscal Deficit,Demographic Effect and GDP Growth

在全球经常账户失衡的背景下,本文利用世界84个国家1990-2015年的面板数据,从内部视角分析一国财政赤字、人口结构、经济增长对储蓄投资缺口的影响,并考察经常账户失衡的根源。初步的静态面板回归结果表明,财政赤字、人口抚养比、经济增长率对一国经常账户失衡具有显著的影响;改进后的动态面板回归结果表明,财政赤字、少儿抚养比、老年抚养比、本国相对于世界的经济增长率对一国经常账户失衡具有显著的解释力,但是少儿抚养比和相对经济增长率对不同组别国家的影响存在差异。因此,治理全球经常账户失衡需要从国内经济因素着手,综合考虑国际宏观经济环境与政策,形成国际所普遍接受的有效解决方法。

Under the background of global current account imbalance,this paper explores how fiscal deficit,demographic effect and GDP growth affect saving-investment gap by using panel data of 84 countries in 1990-2015,and investigates the root causes of current account imbalances. The initial static regression model results show that fiscal deficit,demographic effect and GDP growth have significant effect on current account imbalance. The improved dynamic regression model results show that fiscal deficit,children＇s dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio and the economic growth rate of a country relative to the world have significant explanatory power to current account imbalance,but children＇s dependency ratio and relative GDP growth have different effects on different groups of countries. To control global current account imbalance,we should take into account the international macroeconomic environment and policies to form an internationally accepted effective solution.