我国货币结构变化对通货膨胀的影响研究

A Study of the Impact of Monetary Structure on Inflation in China

本文对1994—2016年间我国货币结构的变化进行分析,从理论和实证两方面研究我国货币结构变化对通货膨胀的影响。结果表明:在此期间,我国货币结构指标(M2'-M1')与通货膨胀(CPI)之间呈现负相关关系,这主要是因为执行交易职能的货币数量下降,流入实体经济的货币不断下降,更多的货币流入金融市场,导致资产价格上涨。我国资产价格对未来通货膨胀具有影响,两者之间呈现出正相关关系。基于以上结论,本文提出未来我国货币政策调控要注意货币总量与结构调控并重,前瞻性地考虑资产价格波动的影响。

This paper analyzes the change of monetary structure in China during 1992-2016,and examine both theoretically and empirically the impact of monetary structure on inflation. It shows during this time, the relationship between monetary structure indicator and inflation is negative. It mainly because the amount of money that operates transaction function keeping up decreasing, and leading the money that flows to real sector also decreasing. While more money flows to financial market, the asset price increases correspondingly. It also shows the asset price has posi-tive impacts on future inflation. Finally, based on the findings, it proposes in the future the monetary policy should consider both monetary aggregation and structure, and the impact of fluctuation of asset price.