基于新金融视角的第三方支付与通货膨胀分析

A Study of Third Party Payment Effect on Inflation under the New Perspective of Finance

基于互联网金融发展的视角将第三方支付引入通货膨胀形成机制,利用Bootstrap方法和2008年第1季度-2016年第2季度的时间序列季度数据,分析第三方支付如何通过改变货币供应量和货币流通速度影响通货膨胀。结果表明,第三方互联网支付使用率和央行规范互联网支付事件对通货膨胀的影响是显著的;货币流通速度与通货膨胀显著正相关,狭义货币乘数与通货膨胀呈正相关,但并不显著;产出缺口、资产价格和货币政策对通货膨胀有一定影响,但并不显著。上述结论说明,在互联网金融迅速发展的今天,第三方支付对通货膨胀的影响不可忽视。

This paper introduces third party payment into the framework of the formation mechanism of inflation and theoretically discusses how third party payment affects inflation through changing money supply and speed of currency circulation under the new perspective of internet finance by using of the bootstrap method and 2008-2016 quarter data of China. Empirical findings show that the inflation is significantly affected by utilization rate of internet payment and the event of central bank regulating internet payment; the speed of currency circulation is positively related to inflation,while money multiplier could be ignored; output gap,asset prices,and monetary policy could be ignored. The above conclusions show that we can＇t ignore the impact of third party payment on inflation in the context of growing internet finance.