东北地区产业结构变迁及其经济效应分析

Industrial Structure Change and Economic Effect Analysis in Northeast China

产业结构变迁是区域经济发展的基础性特征,也是决定区域经济发展内生动力的重要方面。以东北地区为例分析产业结构演变及其合理化进程和高级化进程对长期经济增长和短期经济波动的影响,结果显示,产业结构的合理化和高度化对东北的经济增长均具有显著的正向影响,二者相比较,产业结构的高级化具有更大的增长效应,但存在使经济面临更大波动风险的可能。因此,产业政策要做到内外关联和产业关联性的平衡,在经济增长和波动风险之间进行平衡,并构建一个合理的发展模式。

The industrial structure change is the basic feature of regional economic development,and it is also an important aspect of the internal determining power of regional economic development. Based on this,this paper analyzes the influence of the rationalization and evolution of industrial structure and high-level process on long-term economic growth and short-term economic fluctuation in Northeast China. Research shows that the rationalization and high degree of industrial structure in Northeast China can promote economic growth,and high-grade structure has greater impact on economic growth,but it may lead to greater volatility in the economy. Therefore,in formulating industrial policy,we should balance between internal and external relations and industrial relevance,balance between economic growth and volatility risk,and construct a reasonable development model.