乌鲁木齐市PM2.5及其影响因素间非线性关系研究

Study on the Nonlinear Relationship between PM2.5 and Its Influencing Factors in Urumqi

文章通过对乌鲁木齐市2016年1月到12月每日的PM2.5值与影响因素(温度、风力以及SO_2、CO、NO、NO_2、O_3浓度等)间数据整理和分析,发现PM2.5值与这些因素之间可能存在非线性关系的事实,并利用spss软件做出PM2.5值与影响因素之间关系的散点图。图像显示,PM2.5值与影响因素之间呈现三次曲线特征,进而探讨和建立了非线性回归模型。并对线性回归模型与非线性回归模型作对比检验分析结果在不同分析方法下是否存在显著的差异性;验证非线性回归模型为最优选择,为乌鲁木齐市空气治理工作提供一定的参考。

Through the data analysis of daily PM2.5, temperature, wind and SO2 CO NO NO2 O3 concen-tration from January to December 2016 in the Urumqi city, this article finds out the possible nonlinear re-lationship between the PM2.5 value and temperature, wind and SO2 CO NO NO2 O3 concentration, and makes a diagram using SPSS software, showing a characteristic of cubic curves between the PM2.5 value and temperature and wind, and the SO2 CO NO NO2 O3 concentration, and then explores and establishes a nonlinear regression model, comparing with the linear regression model. The test results verify the nonlin-ear regression model is the optimal choice, providing a reference for the air pollution governance work in Urumqi City.