宏观经济周期、产权性质与公司资本结构

Macroeconomic Cycle,Nature of Ownership and Corporate Capital Structure

以2000—2015年我国上市公司和宏观经济数据为样本,首先实证研究了宏观经济周期对上市公司资本结构的影响,然后又研究了不同产权性质的上市公司的资本结构在经济周期变动时所表现出的不同特征。实证结果表明:宏观经济周期是影响上市公司资本结构决策的重要因素,上市公司资本结构的调整方向与经济周期的变化方向相一致;产权性质是影响资本结构与宏观经济周期关系的重要因素,国有上市公司的资本结构对宏观经济周期变化的敏感度显著低于非国有上市公司,即宏观经济繁荣时国有上市公司的负债率会显著上升,但上升幅度低于非国有上市公司;宏观经济衰退时国有上市公司的负债率会显著下降,但下降幅度也低于非国有上市公司。

Based on the data of China？s listed companies and macro-economy from 2000 to 2015, the paper examines the relationship between the macroeconomic cycle and the corporate capital structure, then fur-ther investigates the impacts of macroeconomic cycle on capital structure of corporates with different own-ership nature. The results show that macro-economy has pro-cycle effect on corporate capital structure.The capital structure of corporates with different ownership nature shows signiiicant differences while themacroeconomic environment changes： the capital structure of state-owned listed companies is lesssensitiveto the change of the macroeconomic cycle than the non-state-owned listed companies, that is, the debt ratioof the state-owned listed companies will increase less than the non-state-owned listed companies signifi- cantlywhen macro-economygoes up, anddecline less than the non-state-owned listed companies signiii- cantly when macro-economy goes down. The empirical results of this paper are consistenoff theory and inconsistent with the pecking order theory.