户籍制度改革背景下农村居民迁移意愿研究——基于有序Logit模型的分析

Study of the Migration Will of Rural Residents under the Reform of Household Registration System——An Ordered Logit Model Analysis

户籍制度和农村产权制度改革使农村居民获得一定范围内自由流动的权利。在此背景下,深入了解农民的迁移意愿及其影响因素对我国新型城镇化建设具有重要参考价值。本文基于农村产权制度改革和户籍制度改革地区的实证调研数据,采用有序Logit模型对农村居民选择不同层级迁移意愿目的地的影响因素进行分析,研究结果表明:受教育程度、是否有就读高中及以下子女、家庭收入水平、家庭规模和农村社区到建制镇和县城的距离等因素对农村居民选择不同层级迁移意愿目的地具有显著影响,最后提出有关对策建议。

Rural residents acquire the right to migrate freely within a certain spatial range after the reform of household registration system and the reform of rural property rights.Therefore it is necessary to investigate the migration will of rural residents.Based on the investigation from the district which take both the reform of household registration system and the reform of rural property rights,the migration will of rural residents were divided into countryside,township,city,and ordered Logit model was adopted to analysis the influencing factors.The result show that the impacts of education level,the demand for children's education,income of household,scale of household,the distance between village and township and the distance between village and county are significant.At last some suggestions were proposed:the development of large,medium and small cities should be in order;taking further reform of rural property rights before taking the reform of household registration system within a larger spatial scale.