基于耦合贝叶斯网络的桥隧过渡段交通系统风险评估模型

Risk Assessment Model of Traffic System on Bridge-tunnel Transition Sections Based on Coupled Bayesian network

针对目前国内仅对单一桥梁或隧道进行风险分析的不足,注重桥、隧效应耦合影响的桥隧过渡段单元,提出基于耦合贝叶斯网络的桥隧过渡段交通子系统的风险评估模型.该模型从系统工程理论的角度出发,依据经典"人-车-路-环境"交通系统的基本元素构建桥隧过渡段交通子系统.通过分析桥隧过渡段的风险组成,由对应的安全性能函数建立风险状态方程.引入贝叶斯网络,解决模型解析中系统风险的不确定性问题,通过模型计算得到实例路段的风险等级划分,并结合路段事故数据验证了模型的可靠性与适用性.

Aiming at the shortcomings of risk analysis of onefold bridge or tunnel in China currently,a risk assessment model of traffic subsystem based on coupled Bayesian network was proposed,which focused on the bridge and tunnel transition sections with coupling effects.Based on the systematic engineering theory,this model constructed the traffic subsystem of bridge and tunnel transition sections by using the basic elements in ＂human-vehicle-road-environment＂classical traffic system.Through analyzing the risk composition of the bridge-tunnel transition section,the risk state equation was established from the corresponding safety function.In order to solve the uncertainty of the system risk in the model analysis,the Bayesian network was introduced.The risk classifications of the example road segments were obtained by the model,and combined with relevant accident data,the reliability and applicability of the model were verified.