影子银行与经济发展的相关性研究——以江苏省为例

Correlation between Shadow Banking and Economic Development: A Case Study

以江苏省1996—2015年的数据为基础构建VAR模型,研究影子银行与经济发展的相关性,结果表明:第一,影子银行和江苏省经济的发展之间互为因果;第二,影子银行虽然能促进经济的发展,但它的促进作用会随着时间的推移慢慢减弱,后期甚至会阻碍经济的发展;第三,江苏省的生产总值主要是受固定资产投资额的影响,影子银行对它的影响前期不断增加,达到一定的阈值后开始减弱。

Having constructed the VAR model based on 1996-2015 data of Jiangsu Province, this paper studies the correlation between shadow banking and economic development. The research has the following three findings： first, shadow banking and Jiangsu＇s economic development interact as both cause and effect; second,shadow banking can promote economic development at the beginning, but it will have a weakening influence over time, and even hinder economic development eventually; third, investment in fixed assets is the main factor influencing the GDP of Jiangsu province, and shadow banking＇s impact on the GDP increases in the early stage, but decreases when a certain threshold has been reached.