基于时间序列邮轮定价策略的研究

Pricing Strategy of Mail Steamer Based on Time Series

目的针对邮轮的实际预订人数、预订舱位价格、预订平均价格的预测,建立最大预期售票收益模型,使得邮轮公司利润最大化。方法首先使用Excel对原数据进行处理获得增量矩阵,基于所有可观测到的可用数据做出预测,并通过增量矩阵基于需求增加的百分比来预测未来需求。其次了解公司定价的基本机制,分别运用曲线拟合法、需求实现机制对平均价格进行预测,并结合MATLAB、SPSS、Excel等软件做出拟合曲线图。最后根据每周预定价格均匀分布的特征计算出各航次价格的概率分布,建立EMSR模型,并结合所计算出的概率得到不同等级每个座位的预期边际收益,从而根据相关数据得到邮轮公司的总收益。结果意愿预订人数与平均价格呈三次函数分布,意愿预订人数转化为实际预订人数的概率系数的表达式是价格的函数。当预期边际收益为零时总收益达到最大,第八次航行的预期售票收益为131 034元。结论邮轮舱位的价格和预定邮轮舱位数与邮轮公司的收益息息相关,在一定程度上邮轮业的发展会推动经济的进步,因此要更加重视邮轮业的发展。

Objective To forecast the actual booking number of passenger on a mail steamer,booking reservation price and the average price and establish the maximum expected revenue model to maximize the profit of company.Methods Firstly,the incremental matrix was obtained by processing the raw data by means of Excel,and based on all available data,predictions were made.The future demand was predicted by the incremental matrix based on the percentage of demand.Secondly,the basic mechanism of the company's pricing was obtained.By using the curve fitting method and the demand for the realization of the mechanism the average price was predicted. MATLAB,SPSS and Excel were used to make a fitting curve.At last,according to the weekly scheduled hedonic price distribution,the probability distribution of the price of the voyage was calculated.By establishing the EMSR model and combining the calculated probability the expected marginal revenue of each seat in different grades was obtained,thus getting the total revenue of the company according to the relevant data.Results The number of people willing to book and the average price was distributed in the form of cubic function,the expression of the probability of the number of booking people transforming into the actual number was the function of the price.In addition,when the expected marginal revenue was zero,total revenue reached the maximum.During the eighth voyage,the expected ticket revenue was 131,034 yuan.Conclusion The accommodation prices and scheduled cabin number are closely related to the company's revenue,and the development of passenger liner industry will promote to a certain extent the economic progress.Therefore more attention should be paid to the development of the passenger liner industry.