基于虚拟变量回归模型分析小区开放对周围道路通行的影响

Analysis of Influence of Community Opening on Surrounding Traffic Based on Virtual Variable Regression

目的针对小区开放问题,建立评价指标体系、车辆通行模型,对小区开放、道路通行影响进行定量研究。方法以北京市某一区域交通情况为例,收集相关数据,使用虚拟变量、层次分析、多元线性回归、功效系数、控制变量等方法,分别建立虚拟变量回归模型、多元拟合回归模型、控制变量模型,综合运用MATLAB、EVIEWS等软件编程。结果小区开放对周围道路通行影响与小区类型有关;车辆通行的模型为多元线性回归模型;住宅型小区开放对道路通行影响最大。结论小区开放对道路通行可能有积极影响,也可能会有消极影响,城市规划研究单位和交通管理部门可以通过合理增加车道条数和交叉口个数,促进小区开放对道路通行的积极影响。

Objective In view of community opening,to establish the evaluation index system,traffic model and quantitatively analyze the influences of community opening on surrounding traffic.MethodsBy taking the traffic of an area in Beijing as an example,after collecting relevant data,the virtual variables,hierarchical analysis,multiple linear regression,efficacy coefficient and control variables were used to respectively set up virtual variable regression model,the fitting of multivariate regression model and the control variable model.And programming softwares such as MATLAB and EVIEWS,were also used.Results the study showed that the influence of community opening on the surrounding road traffic was related to the area type;the vehicle traffic was of a multiple linear regression model;and the residential area opening had the greatest impact on surrounding traffic.Conclusion Community opening may have a positive or negative influence on traffic.Therefore,the urban planning and traffic management departments should reasonably increase the number of lanes and crossings,so as to promote the positive influence of the community opening on traffic.