美国气候变化政策演变及原因和影响分析

Evolution, Reason and Impacts of US's Climate Policies

从20世纪90年代以来美国气候变化政策几经调整和翻转,其原因根植于美国国内政治的复杂性和两党执政理念的差别性。特朗普当选总统以来,奥巴马"气候遗产"被抛弃,美国处于"气候政策真空"状态。除既有原因之外,美国能源政策的重大调整和外交战略的整体收缩是此次气候政策翻转的重要原因。研究认为,虽然美国政策调整将给美国低碳发展和全球气候治理带来负面影响,但这种影响具有不确定性,长远看或许并不显著;对我国而言,如果应对得当,美国气候和能源政策调整带来的影响将是短期和有限的,而且还可能将负面影响转化为正面影响。

Climate policies in US have been adjusted and overturned several times since 1990s. The reason lies in the complexity of US’s politics and different ideas of two parties on national governing. As the new president, Trump disposed the climate legacy of Obama completely, causing the ‘climate vacuum’ in US. Significant adjustments on energy policy and foreign affair strategy are also the major reasons for the situation. This article argues, though negative impacts would be caused by this change on US low carbon development global climate governance, it is uncertain and might be not so signi＇cant from long-run perspectives. Regarding the impacts on China, the impacts would be short-termed and limited if China manages it appropriately. Furthermore, the positive impacts might be expected.