我国能源消费、二氧化碳排放与经济增长的关系研究——基于煤炭消费的视角

A Study on the Relationship between Energy Consumption,Carbon Dioxide Emission and Economic Growth in China——On the Perspective of Coal Consumption

随着我国经济飞速发展,不可忽视的生态环境问题伴随而来,经济增长、煤炭消费与环境的冲突日益加剧。构建供给侧和需求侧两方面传导理论模型,利用更加灵活、稳健的TVP-VAR模型计算时变冲击效应,从供给侧与需求侧两个方面分别得到"资本、劳动→煤炭消费→经济增长"与"经济增长→煤炭消费→二氧化碳"的传导关系链,反映出我国目前仍依赖煤炭能源消费带动经济增长,产业结构较为落后、新能源利用较少。

With the rapid development of China＇s economy, the ecological environment problems that cannot be ignored is accompanied as well, and the conflicts between economic growth, coal consumption and the environment are growing seriously. This paper constructs conduction model from the two aspects of supply side and demand side,and calculates timevarying shock effect by TVP-VAR model which is more flexible and robust. In the supply side and demand side,respectively, we gets conduction relationship chains which are ＂capital, labor →coal consumption →economic growth＂ and ＂economic growth →coal consumption →carbon dioxide＂. These two links reflect China＇s current reliance on coal energy consumption situation to promote economic growth,and the industrial structure of our country is relatively backward as well as the less utilization of new energy.