基于耕地因素分解的浙江省粮食生产变化研究

Study on grain production in Zhejiang based on factors decomposition of cultivated land use

为了解浙江省近年来粮食产量趋势,采用波动理论研究1978—2015年浙江省的粮食产量周期特征,并运用LMDI方法对影响粮食产量的耕地利用因素进行分解。结果表明,浙江省粮食产量呈现先升高再长期波动下降然后逐步稳定的态势,波动幅度在收窄,周期性波动特征依然存在。单产提高是粮食增产的主要途径,复种指数降低、种植业结构调整和耕地资源减少导致浙江省粮食总产下降。影响浙江各地市粮食生产变化的主导因子略有不同,复种指数降低是台州、宁波、绍兴、舟山粮食生产减退的首要因子,结构调整是其他地区粮食生产减退的首要因子。

To understand the trends of grain production in Zhejiang Province,wave theory was adopted to study the grain output during 1978-2015,and LMDI approach was introduced to decompose the factors of cultivated land use which influenced grain production. It was shown that grain production in Zhejiang increased first,then reduced and was tended to be stable. The production fluctuation was narrowed,yet cyclical characteristics still existed. The increase of yield per hectare was the major factor to increase grain production,while the adjustment of planting structure,the reduction of multiple-crop index and cultivated land resources led to the decrease of grain production. The dominant factor to the grain production differed among cities. The decrease of multiple-crop index was the main factor for yield reduction in Taizhou,Shaoxing,Ningbo and Zhoushan,while the structure adjustment was the main factor for the rest cities.