基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的玉米品种安全评价及阻碍因素诊断——以河西制种基地为例

Analysis and evaluation of crop variety safety and diagnosis of obstacle factors based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method——Taking Hexi seed production base as an example

玉米作为第三大粮食作物,其品种安全与粮食安全息息相关,目前河西制种基地面临着所育品种血缘相近的多、远缘的少、种质资源同质化等一系列问题。文章基于玉米品种安全的相关研究,结合实地调研数据,运用AHP-模糊综合评价法,从资源安全、市场安全、管理安全和技术安全4个方面出发,选取24个指标构建评价体系,对当前玉米品种安全进行了系统性评价;并对玉米品种安全的阻碍因素进行诊断,研究结果表明,玉米品种安全处于较不安全状态,原因主要在于具有核心作用的制种环节处于较不安全状态;玉米品种安全的阻碍因素的阻碍程度依次为:技术因子>市场因子>资源因子>管理因子;单项评价指标阻碍因素中种子市场监督管理体系完善程度、种子市场不当竞争、制种技术规范性、制种过程管理程度成为影响玉米品种安全的主要因素。

Maize is the third largest food,whose variety safety is closely related to the food security. At present,the Hexi seed production base is facing several problems including more close varieties,less distant varieties,germplasm resources homogenization and so on. Based on the related research of maize variety safety,combined with field survey data,we used the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. From the four aspects of resource security,market security,management security and technology security,24 indexes were selected to construct the evaluation system for the safety system of maize varieties; and the obstacle factors on the maize safety were investigated. The results showed that the safety of maize varieties in a state of insecurity,which was mainly due to the insecurity of core production link.The degree of obstacle factors for the safety of maize varieties showed in the order of technical factor market factor resource factor management factor. In the single obstacle factor evaluation,the perfection of supervision and management system for seed market,Improper competition in seed markets,perfection,technical standard of seed production,management level of seed production process became the main factors affecting the safety of maize varieties.