市场开放、地方财税竞争与产业结构调整--基于我国省级面板数据的实证研究

MARKET OPENNESS,LOCAL TAX COMPETITION AND THE INDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING——Empirical Study from Provincial Panel Data in China

平衡"稳增长"与"调结构"的关键与核心在于"供给侧结构性改革"的产业结构优化形成方面。本文系统分析了市场开放与地方财税竞争对产业结构调整的影响机制,并采用2003—2014年中国29个省、市、自治区面板数据进行了实证检验。结果显示:市场开放显著推进了产业结构调整,但国际市场开放和国内市场开放作用力的大小存在地区差异,东部地区国内市场开放的作用力更大,中部与西部地区则相反。地方财税竞争一方面有利于产业结构高级化,另一方面抑制了产业结构合理化。本文进一步考察发现,地方财税竞争会削弱市场开放对产业结构合理化促进的效力。产业结构转型过程中存在"拉弗效应",结构性减税只要与产业结构调整方向保持一致,就能在增加财税收入的同时优化产业结构。地方财政支出在一定程度上推动了产业结构高级化,但是,其中的经济建设性支出会扭曲资源配置,抑制产业结构合理化。地方税收政策对产业结构调整存在显著的结构效应,所得税相比商品税更趋于优化产业结构。这些研究结论对于深化市场开放、矫正地方政府竞争行为、实施财税体制改革等具有重要的政策启示。

The key and core to balance the ＂steady growth＂ and ＂structural adjustment＂ lie in the opti- mization of the industrial structure of the ＂supply side structural reforms＂. This paper systematically con- structs the influence mechanism of market openness, local tax competition with industrial restructuring re- spectively, and utilizes the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2003 to 2014 for empirical analysis. The findings shows as follows. Market openness significantly promotes the industrial structuring, but it presents regional differences between international market openness and domestic market openness that the impact on the central and west of China is greater than the east of China. On the one hand the local tax competition accelerates the advancement of industrial structure, on the other hand it will inhibit the ration- alization of industrial structure, further this study finds that it weakens the effectiveness of market open- ness on the rationalization of industrial structure. A ＂pull effect＂ exists in the process of industrial struc- ture transformation that if structural tax cuts can consistent with industrial structure adjustment, it will increase the tax revenue and promotes industrial restructuring and optimization. Local fiscal expenditure drives the advancement of industrial structure to a certain extent, however the economic construction ex- penditure will distort the allocation of resources, inhibiting the rationalization if industrial structure. Tax policy to industrial structure exists a significant structure effect, in other words income tax is more likely to promote industrial restructuring than commodity tax. All findings have important implications for deep- ening the market opening, correcting the local government competition behavior and implementing the fis- cal and taxation system reform.