城市住宅地价变化影响因素的通径分析——以石家庄为例

Path analysis on the factors influencing urban residential land price——Taking Shijiazhuang as an example

定量测度各影响因素对城市住宅地价的直接和间接效应对城市住宅地价的合理发展和城市土地利用与开发的宏观调控具有重要意义。论文在剖析城市地价变化影响因素的基础上,运用通径分析方法,对各影响因素与城市住宅地价之间的关系进行定量厘定,挖掘两者之间的内在联系。结果表明:1)住宅地价的变化受到经济发展水平的综合影响效应在所有影响因素中最大。经济发展水平的间接通径系数最大,表明经济发展水平主要是通过作用其他各方面因素来影响住宅地价的发展。2)从直接效应看,房地产市场状况、基础设施状况和经济发展水平对住宅地价的直接影响效应较大,从间接效应看,经济发展水平和环境质量变化对住宅地价的间接影响效应较大。3)城市规模与潜力直接通径系数和间接通径系数在各个影响因素中均最小,对住宅地价的影响较弱。

Quantitative measurement on factors influencing the urban housing land price is of great significance to the rational development of urban housing land price and the macro control of urban land use and development.On the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of urban land price changes and by means of path analysis method,we made a quantitative determination of the relationship between each influencing factor and the urban housing land price and excavates the intrinsic link between the two. Results show：（1）The change of residential land price was influenced by the comprehensive effect of economic development level which was the most important one of all the factors. The indirect path coefficient of economic development was the biggest,which indicates the economic development level acted mainly through other factors to affect the development of residential land prices.（2）Looking from the direct effect,the real estate market conditions,infrastructure status and economic development level directly impacted the residential land price. Looking from the indirect effect,the economic development level and environmental quality change had larger effect on housing land price.（3）The direct and indirect path coefficients of urban scale and potential were the least in for all influencing factors,and had less influence to the residential land price.