能源经济环境冲突中利益相关者的博弈分析——以能源重镇宁波市镇海区为例

A Study on Energy-economy-environment Conflict Based on Game Analysis

当前城市冲突之一表现在能源经济环境利益各方的争执上,以可持续发展为根本理念,如何实现三者的协调发展已经成为人们关注的焦点问题.为此,围绕宁波市镇海发电厂、当地市民和当地政府的三方利益冲突,分别构建了单策略和多策略的冲突博弈模型,其中多策略又分为发电厂技术升级和搬迁为导向的冲突博弈模型,并用GMCR_Ⅱ软件求解模型的最强纳什均衡解.模型的计算结果符合三方博弈的实际情况,体现出当地政府注重民生和环境的同时,通过搬迁镇海电厂、技术升级改造,促进当地经济的发展.研究结果对我国能源重镇在能源经济环境冲突中的决策具有一定的指导意义.

One of the current city conflicts lies in the disputes between interests of EnergyEconomy-Environment（3 E）. It has been a focus that how to achieve the coordinated development between the three aspects based on the rooted concept of sustainable development.Therefore, conflict game models of single strategy and multiple strategy are established in this passage, centering on conflicts of three interested parties between Ningbo Zhenhai Power Plant, local residents and local government. In the multiple strategy, conflict game model is divided into technological upgrade oriented and relocation oriented of the power plant, and this passage solves the models by GMCR_Ⅱ and gets the strongest Nash equilibrium. The results of the models are consistent with the actual situation of the game between the three parties. And the results reflect that local government can improve the local economic development through the relocation and technological upgrade of Zhenhai Power Plant as it attaches importance to people＇s livelihood and environment. The results of research place an instructive significance on the decision of conflicts between Energy-Economy-Environment（3 E） for China＇s energy hubs.