1982-2010年基于不同统计数据的中国城市人口规模体系研究

Study on urban population hierarchy system based on different data sources of China from 1982 to 2010

城市规模体系是城市地理和城市规划的基础研究内容,对合理确定城市发展政策具有重要作用。文中在总结不同城市人口统计口径的基础上,通过金字塔结构和齐普夫位序规模回归方法,探究了不同城市人口规模指代数据的适用性,分析了1982年以来我国城市人口规模体系的演变过程。研究发现:(1)城市实体地域与行政地域的区别是城市人口统计问题的根源,户籍市区非农业人口显著低估了中国大城市对人口的吸纳能力,将逐渐退出城市人口规模研究;(2)建议在今后的历史城市规模讨论中,使用第三、五、六次人口普查数据中的城市人口数量作为城市规模的指代数值,1990年户籍市区非农业人口数量可以在一定程度上反映当年的城市人口规模;(3)受行政区划调整和城市化政策的影响,1982-2010年我国城市人口规模体系结构变化明显,集聚度先降后升。

Urban population hierarchy system is a fundamental research for city geography and planning studies in China. Its coreferential data are mostly from population census and from registering census. This research pro- vided the data of city population in China from 1982 to 2010, and then analyzed their applicability in urban pop- ulation hierarchy studies and China＇ s urban size distributions under different database. We found ： （ 1 ） The in- harmonious difference between physical boundaries and administrative boundaries is the basic reason for urban population data statistics. （2） Due to disturbing floating population and outmoded concept, nonagricultural pop- ulation data in registering census underrated the urban population in big cities; population census data in 1982, 2000 and 2010 were more accuracy. （3） Urban population scale was decided by local administrative division to a large extent; urbanization policy obviously influenced on the change of city population structure in China.