天然气价格变动对四川省物价水平的影响分析——基于改进的投入产出价格影响模型

Impact of natural gas price changes on price level of Sichuan Province——Based on the improved input-output price effect model

基于四川省2012年的投入产出表,采用改进的投入产出价格影响模型,分析天然气价格变动对四川省其他部门产品价格与物价总水平的影响。结果表明:当同时考虑政府管制和市场供求关系时,天然气上游和下游产品价格一次性下跌30%,将会导致四川省物价总水平下降0.9024百分点。由于政府管制和供求关系的影响,导致其他产业部门的产品价格变动、物价水平变动都要小于传统模型测算的结果,从而使天然气价格传导机制不能有效地发挥其市场资源配置的作用。

Based on the input- output table of 2012 in Sichuan province, we analyzed the effects of natural gas price changes on other related industries and the price level by using the input - output price model. The results showed that when considering government regulation and market supply and demand at the same time, if the prices of upstream and downstream products of ince was down 0.9024%. Due to government gas fell 30% one - time, the overall price level of Sichuan prov- regulation and market supply and demand, it led to a result that produet prices in other sectors and the priee level index were estimated to be less than the traditional model re- sults, so that the price of natural gas transmission mechanism cannot play its role of market allocation of re- sources.