天山典型湖泊水位变化影响因素对比分析-以博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖为例

Remote sensing based analysis on environment changes of typical lakes in Tianshan mountains——A case study of Bosten Lake and Issyk-Kul Lake

利用1960~2015年水文、气候与社会经济数据,采用相关分析、主成分分析等统计分析方法定量的分析了近55年博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位变化影响因素。研究结果表明:1)近55年来,在人类活动与气候变化的共同影响下,博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位经历上升与下降的变化过程,其中博斯腾湖水位呈现下降-上升-下降的变化趋势,而伊赛克湖水位表现下降-上升-下降-上升的变化趋势。2)主成分分析结果表明,引起博斯腾湖水位变化的第一主成分为人文因素,第二主成分为自然气候因素,而引起伊塞克湖水位变化的第一主成分为气候因素,第二主成分为人文因素。

In this research the typical Tianshan mountain lakes - Bosten Lake and Issyk - Kul Lake were taken as the study objects, by using 1960 -2015 hydrological data, climate data, and social -economic data, correla- tion analyze and principal component analysis were utilized to find out the driving factors. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） Over the past 55 years, under the influence of human activities and climate change, Bosten Lake and Issyk- Kul Lake has experienced volatility change of increase and decrease process, among them Bosten lake was characterized with decline - rise and decline change trend. However Issyk - Kul lake was characterized with decline - rise- decline and rise change trend. （2） Principal component analysis results showed that the first principal component is the human factor for Bosten Lake water level change, the second principal component is the climatic factor. Instead, the first principal component is climatic factor for Issyk - Kul water level change, the second principal component is the human factors.