中国与世界主要国家间的产业同构性及其对中国出口贸易的影响——基于系统GMM估计的实证分析

The Industrial Isomorphism between China and Major Countries in the World and Its Impact on China's Export Trade:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Estimation of System GMM

根据世界投入产出数据库计算的中国同世界主要国家的产业同构性表明,2000-2014年期间中国同世界上大部分国家间存在较高的产业结构趋同,而与不同国家之间的产业同构性又存在较大的差异;从每年的平均值看,中国同主要国家间的产业同构性在2008年之前波动较大,之后波动较小。运用中国同41个国家的面板数据进行系统GMM估计表明,中国与世界主要国家间的产业同构性对于中国向这些国家的出口具有显著的抑制作用,说明当前中国在国际贸易中所显示出的产业竞争力还相对较低。中国今后在实施"一带一路"建设中要通过继续加强技术创新提高企业的生产率水平和产业竞争力水平。

Between 2000 and 2014,the industrial isomorphism between China and major countries in the world based on the W orld Input and Output Database shows that there was a high convergence of industrial structure between China and most countries in the world,and the industrial isomorphism between China and different countries was very different.Based on the annual average,the industrial isomorphism between China and major countries fluctuated greatly before2008 and then fluctuated less. Using panel data of 41 countries and China,GMMestimates indicate that the industrial i-somorphism between China and major countries in the world has a significant inhibitory effect on the export of China to these countries,which shows that industrial competitiveness of China in international trade is still relatively low. In the implementation of the 'Belt and R oad'initiative in the future,China should continue to strengthen technological innovation to improve the productivity of enterprises and the industrial competitiveness,which will offset the negative impact of high level of industry convergence between China and major countries on the export trade of China.