长期居住意愿对流动人口消费行为的影响

How does Migrants' willingness of Long-term Stay Affect Their Consuming Behavior

文章利用国家卫计委2014年流动人口动态监测数据,考察长期居住意愿对流动人口消费行为的影响,并使用普通最小二乘法和倾向性得分匹配法进行实证分析,结果发现,有长期居住意愿的流动人口人均月消费达1360元,比其他流动人口高出13.9%。有长期居住意愿流动人口的住房消费支出增加20.7%,使其占总消费比重提高1.3%,在所有支出中影响最大。长期居住意愿对省内流动人口的住房消费支出影响比跨省流动人口更大,增幅达28.3%。文章认为,在当前的户籍制度下,政府可以通过居住证制度合理引导流动人口在流入地长期居住,加快流动人口从个体迁移向举家迁移转变,增加其在流入地的消费支出,尤其是住房的消费支出,为进一步的户籍改革提供基础。

This paper studies how migrants’consuming behavior is affected by their willingness of long-term stay by using the2014 Migrant Population Dynamic Survey from National Health and Family Planning Commission of China.Using both ordinary least square and propensity score matching methods,we find that the average monthly consumption for long-term stay migrants is 1360 Yuan(RMB),which is 13.9%more than the consumption of other migrants while keeping other factors constant.Migrants’long-term stay willingness has the strongest impact on their housing expenditure,which expands 20.7%and accounts 1.3%increase among all consumptions.Comparing to the migrants from other provinces,the longer stay migrants from same province have an even bigger housing expenditure expansion of 28.3%.We conclude that the willingness of migrants’long-term stay can be promoted by the residence permit under the current Hukou system which exerts significant impact on the consumption in the migration destination,especially for the housing expenditure by increasing probability of family migration.