爆炸波中的混合不确定度量化方法

Mixed Uncertainty Quantification of Blast Wave Problem

将认知不确定作为外层,偶然不确定作为内层,利用混合不确定理论处理爆炸波中的不确定度问题.分别使用非嵌入多项式混沌方法(NIPC)和Dempster-Shafer理论处理偶然不确定和认知不确定,用迎风格式求解确定系统.结果表明:NIPC和Dempster-Shafer结构为模型输入参数和初边值不确定性对输出响应量的影响提供一种有效方法,对各种建模与模拟不确定性评估和确认建模与模拟具有很好的参考价值.

We study uncertainty in blast wave problem.Input uncertainties are characterized as aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.Mixed UQ approaches are employed.The outer level UQ is linked to epistemic uncertainty,and the inner UQ is linked to aleatory uncertainty.Non-intrusive polynomial chaos（NIPC） is utilized to cope with aleatory uncertainty.Dempster-Shafer structure is used to deal with epistemic uncertainties.Upwind scheme is used to solve corresponding deterministic system.It acquires preferably effect.It is shown that NIPC approach and Dempster-Shafer structure handles efficiently effect of initial-boundary value uncertainty and parameter uncertainty on simulation result.It is helpful in evaluating degree of confidence and validating result of modeling and simulation.