信贷政策对通货膨胀和经济增长的动态影响

Dynamic Impact of Credit Policy on Inflation and Economic Growth

信贷政策是国家调控宏观经济的重要政策,中国的信贷扩张如何影响通货膨胀和经济增长是一个极具现实意义的问题。基于VAR-VEC模型的实证分析表明:一方面,信贷扩张会减弱CPI和GDP的增长速度,从而影响经济增长效率;另一方面,泰勒法则在中国存在,CPI和GDP均会对信贷政策产生影响,其中GDP的影响较小,CPI的影响较大,特别是对贷款同比增长率的影响高达30%。故在面临经济增长放缓、通货紧缩的压力时,采用信贷政策应适度,同时也需考虑CPI和GDP对信贷政策本身的影响。

Credit Policy is very important for a country＇s macroeconomy. So it is of cosiderable realistic significance to explore how credit expansion in China will influence the inflation and economic growth. The results based on the model of VAR-VEC show that： on one side,the expansion of credit will weaken the growth of CPI and GDP and influence economic growth efficiency; on the other side,the Taylor rule exists in our country to a certain extent. CPI and GDP would affect the credit policy,while the effect of GDP is less. The effect of CPI is greater,particularly for loans,the contribution rate of year-on-year growth rate as high as 30%. Therefore,when facing with the pressures of economic slowdown and deflation,the credit policy should be set moderately,at the same time we should take the influence of the CPI and GDP on credit policy into consideration.