军用危险品航空运输装卸保障风险预测

Risk Prediction of the Loading and Unloading Guarantee of Military Dangerous Materials Air Transportation

针对军用危险品航空运输装卸保障过程中的风险问题,根据军用危险品航空运输装卸保障理论与实际,梳理出影响军用危险品航空运输装卸保障的因素,建立了影响因素层次模型。针对影响因素的不确定性,将模糊集理论应用到贝叶斯网络中去,建立了基于模糊贝叶斯网络的军用危险品航空运输装卸保障风险预测的数学模型。最后,将实例中的节点证据输入到模糊贝叶斯网络中,对保障风险进行推理,验证了模型的有效性和实用性。

Aiming at the risk during process of the loading and unloading guarantee in military dangerous materials air transportation, the influencing factors of the loading and unloading guarantee in military dangerous materials air transportation were teased out based on the theory and reality of the loading and unloading guarantee, with building a hierarchical model of the influencing factors. For the uncertainty of the influencing factors,fuzzy set theory was applied to the Bayesian network, and the mathematical model of risk prediction in the loading and unloading guarantee in military dangerous materials air transportation. Finally, the evidences of nodes in a case study were input into the fuzzy Bayesian network, reasoning the risk of support and testing the validity and practicality of the model.