基于EROI的中国未来油气净产出研究

The Research on Chinese Net Output of Oil & Gas in the Future Based on EROI

以往油气供应问题的研究多从最终能源总产出出发,没有考虑油气生产中的能源投入变化引起的能源净产出变化,而净能源产出才是最终被人类社会利用的能源总量。在对中国能源投入回报值(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)计算与中国未来油气总产量预测的基础上,通过为中国油气开采业EROI未来走势设定不同情景,研究中国未来油气净产出。从总产量来看,未来中国油气总产量依然有较大潜力;而从净能源角度来看,油气总量的峰值与净能源的峰值并不重叠,油气总量的显性增高可能因为EROI的降低而造成实际上净能源的降低。因此,中国在关注未来油气总产量的同时,应密切关注油气开采业的EROI及净产量,以合理规划未来石油开采量,并积极寻找高EROI替代能源。

Most previous studies put their eyesight on the final energy output,instead of the net energy output caused by input in the whole system. However,net energy output is finally used by and benefit the human society. On the basis of the Chinese oil and natural gas production forecast and the EROI（ Energy Return on Investment） computing,this paper will study the Chinese net output of oil and gas in the future by different scenarios. Studies show that from the point of total production,China still has great potential of oil and gas production in the future. But from the side of net energy,the peak of total production does not mate with the peak of net energy,the net energy maybe decrease because of lower EROI even with the total production increasing. As a result,China should pay close attention to the EROI of oil and gas industry and the net production as well as the future production,for planning the future production,and actively seek high EROI alternative energy resources.