中国成品油消费影响因素分析及增长趋势预测

Analysis and Forecasts on Petroleum Products Consumption in China

为了掌握中国成品油消费动因和中国成品油未来消费趋势,分析了中国成品油消费结构及特点,对各行业不同类型成品油分别识别了影响其消费的因素,建立了协整模型和误差修正模型,研究了这些因素对成品油消费的长期和短期影响,并根据误差修正模型对中国未来成品油消费趋势进行了预测。研究发现,交通运输业产值增长对柴油消费增长的影响大于对汽油消费增长的影响,私人汽车保有量对生活汽油消费增长具有较大影响,航空周转量对煤油消费具有决定性的影响,而工业产值对柴油消费的影响较小,随着中国经济增长的放缓、运输业替代能源的应用、柴油车使用范围缩小及频率降低,中国的柴油消费将很有可能像西方发达国家一样达到峰值。

The consumption structure and characteristics of China’s petroleum products are analyzed to learn the motive of domestic petroleum products consumption and the trend for future consumption,and the cointegration and error correction models are established to study factors affecting the long and short term consumption of different types of petroleum products according to their consumption in different industrial sectors. Furthermore,China’s future consumption of petroleum products is forecasted based on the error correction models. The results indicated： the contribution of transportation industry’s growth to diesel consumption was larger than that of gasoline consumption; private car ownership had a great impact on promoting gasoline consumption; aviation turnovers was the driving force of kerosene consumption; yet the growth of industrial output value had only a little effect on diesel consumption. With the slowdown of China’s economic growth,the usage of substitutes in transportation fuel,and the decline of diesel vehicles,the diesel consumption in China is expected to peak as what happened in the developed countries.