基于Logistic回归模型的新型职业农民培育制约因素分析——以皖北地区为例

Analyzing the Restriction Factors of the New Professional Farmers' Training Based on Logistic Regression Model——A Case Study of Northern Anhui Area

基于系统和实证的视角,以人力资本理论为基础,以皖北地区为载体,选取先天人力资本要素和后天人力资本要素共10个解释变量,构建二元Logistic回归模型,对皖北地区的新型职业农民培育制约因素进行尝试性检测和评估。实证结果显示,皖北新型职业农民培育面临培育对象年龄素质之限、培育内容模式设置之滞、供需双方政策认知偏差、培育反馈评价机制薄弱等多重困境。据此,提出创新培育内容、优化培育途径、建立长效机制、营造良好氛围等对策建议,以提高皖北地区培育的针对性和有效性。

The present study is conducted in north Anhui from the perspective of system and empirical cases,and based on the human capital theory. 10 innate human capital factors and acquired human capital factors are selected to explain variables and establish Logistic regression model to analyze the restriction factors for the new professional farmer in north Anhui. The study reveals many problems existing in the new professional farmers＇ training,such as the limitation of trainee＇s age and quality,unreasonable training pattern,the divergence in the recognition of between supplying and demanding parties,and the incompetent evaluation mechanism for training etc. Therefore,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from four aspects,including innovating the training pattern,optimizing the cultivation channels,improving long-term mechanism,creating good atmosphere and other countermeasures,so as to improve the pertinence and effectiveness of cultivation.