农业供给侧结构性改革背景下柑橘最优种植规模的探究——基于价格波动视角

Optimal Scale Measurement of Citrus under Supply-side Structural Reform in Agriculture: Based on Price Fluctuation

基于蛛网模型理论,首先通过实证分析对全国柑橘类水果价格波动进行探究,并在此基础上构建回归函数模型,通过对赣南脐橙种植规模的实地调查,对农户收益最大化条件下的最优种植规模及合理区间进行测算。研究发现,上期柑橘的市场价格与当期种植面积呈正向线性相关,而当期柑橘产量则与当期柑橘的市场价格呈正向二次相关;进一步利用调查数据分析,综合考虑农户特征变量后,非农业货币收入和家庭劳动力人数对农户收益均具有显著影响,而年龄和受教育水平并不显著;赣南脐橙种植小农户的最优规模为1.8 hm2,而剔除农户特征变量后,机会成本下小农户最优种植规模为1.66 hm2,合理区间为1.27~2.05 hm2。

This paper analyzes the fluctuations of citrus fruit price based on the web model theory,and,using the function model,measures the optimal scale of farmer profits. Studies show that the price of the citrus market has been linked to the amount of production,and that if farmer characteristics are taken into consideration,the Gannan citrus growers have the optimal scale of 1.8 hectares.However,if farmer characteristics are not taken into account,the optimal scale of opportunity cost is 1. 66 hectares acres with reasonable geographical range of 1.27-2.05 hectares.