黄土高原半干旱区马铃薯气候适宜度模拟及其时空变化特征

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Climatic Suitability of Potato in Semi-arid Region of Loess Plateau

为了研究气候变化对西北半干旱地区马铃薯生产的影响,选取甘肃省定西市为研究区,以马铃薯气候适宜度模型为基础,利用1961—2010年当地气象站的逐日气象数据,重点分析该区域马铃薯的温度、水分及综合气候适宜度的时空变化特征。结果表明,在全球变暖的大背景下,1961—2010年定西地区马铃薯温度适宜度以0.012·(10 a)^(-1)(P<0.01)的速率呈现上升趋势,水分适宜度变化趋势并不明显,综合气候适宜度以0.006·(10 a)^(-1)(P<0.05)的速率呈上升趋势。从空间分布特征看,温度适宜度和综合气候适宜度均呈现北高南低的地域分布特征,水分适宜度总体呈现由东北向西南递减的分布特征。相较于1961—1990年,1991—2010年定西北部地区马铃薯气候适宜度增加十分明显。

This study selected Dingxi city of Gansu Province as the research area to study the influence of climate change on potato production in the semi-arid region of Northwest China. Based on the climate suitability model of potato,the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature,water and integrated climatic suitability of potato were analyzed by using the daily meteorological data of the local weather stations during 1961-2010. The results showed that under the background of global warming,the temperature suitability and the integrated climatic suitability of potato in Dingxi region presented an upward trend with 0. 012 ·（ 10 a）^（-1）（P 0. 01） and0. 006·（10 a）^（-1）（P 0. 05）,respectively,while the moisture suitability had no obvious trend. In spatial distribution,the temperature suitability and the integrated climatic suitability decreased from north to south,while the moisture suitability increased from the southwest to northeast. Compared with the period of 1961-1990,the climate suitability of potato in Dingxi region increased obviously during 1991-2010.