基于VIC水文模型的滦河流域径流变化特征及其影响因素

Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Runoff in Luanhe River Basin Based on VIC Hydrological Model

基于1971—2000年的滦河水文站径流资料,采用Mann-Kendall法和有序聚类分析法对滦县水文站的水文序列进行突变分析,利用VIC(variable infiltration capacity)水文模型对滦河流域的径流进行模拟,探讨该模型对滦河径流的模拟效果,并定量计算气候变化和人类活动对滦河流域径流的影响程度。结果表明:1980年是滦河流域径流的突变点,1971—1979年为该流域径流序列的基准期;该时期VIC水文模型模拟效果较好,模拟的流量过程与天然径流过程较一致;1980年之后,因受气候变化、人类活动导致的下垫面情况变化因素影响,VIC模拟的月径流过程的确定性系数有所减小,1980年代,模型的模拟效果总体较好,只有1988年对于丰水期的模拟略偏小,然而从1990年代开始,模型对于丰水年的模拟偏小明显。定量分析计算出的气候变化对滦河流域径流影响为54.9%,人类活动影响为45.1%,可见人类活动不容忽视。

Based on the runoff data of the Luanhe hydrological station from 1971 to 2000,the Mann-kendall method and the ordinal clustering analysis method were applied to analyze the mutation of hydrological sequence from the Luanxian hydrological station in Tianjin. In order to study the simulation results of VIC（ variable infiltration capacity） hydrological model about the Luanhe River runoff and quantitatively analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff of the Luanhe River Basin,the hydrological model was used to reconstruct the runoff. The simulation results show that the year of 1980 was a catastrophe point of the runoff. So the duration of 1971-1979 could be served as the base period for the runoff sequence of the basin. VIC hydrological model simulation was better at this stage,and the simulated flow process line was more consistent with the natural runoff process. However,the deterministic coefficient of simulated monthly runoff decreased due to climate change and the underlying surface change caused by human activities after 1980. More prominent was that the simulated results during the high water period were not good. In the 1980 s,the simulation results of the model were better,and only the simulation of the wet period in 1988 was slightly smaller. However,since the 1990 s,the simulation results of the model in wet years were significantly smaller. The impact of climate change on the Luanhe River Basin runoff was 54. 9% and that of human activities was 45. 1%. Thus,human activities should not be ignored.