基于物理量参数的山东聊城地区冬季降水相态预报模型研究

Research on Winter Precipitation Type Forecast Model in Liaocheng of Shandong Province Based on Physical Parameters

利用2011—2015年冬季山东聊城机场的逐日逐时常规地面观测资料和邢台站、章丘站的逐日常规高空探测资料,计算了46个物理量参数。在物理量参数与降水相态相关系数的显著性检验基础上,根据物理量参数在不同降水相态样本中值域分布特征,采用盒状图和技巧评分的方法最终选定章丘站和邢台站具有预报意义的各6个物理量参数。通过分析不同类型物理量参数对不同降水相态的指示作用,根据各物理量参数在不同降水相态样本中的阈值,确定聊城地区冬季降水相态预报的判定指标。采用隶属函数转换法,建立聊城地区冬季降水相态预报模型。经实况拟合检验,准确率达85%以上,效果较好。

Forty-six physical parameters were calculated by using daily regular upper sounding data from Xingtai and Zhangqiu aerological observation stations and hourly regular observation data from the Liaocheng Airport in winter during 2011-2015. Based on the significance test of the correlation coefficients between physical parameters and different precipitation type samples（ precipitation events which occurred less than 12 h after the observation time） and the analysis of numerical distribution of physical parameters for different precipitation type samples,6 physical parameters of Zhangqiu and 6 physical parameters of Xingtai for prediction were finally selected by using the methods of box plot and skill scores. Through analyzing the indication to different precipitation type samples of different physical parameters types,and according to the different thresholds of physical parameters,different criteria for different precipitation types were determined respectively. Thus,the forecast model for precipitation type in Liaocheng was established through the membership function conversion method. The fitting test and forecasting test of the forecast model were verified with a good result and the accuracy rate was over 85%. Results from this paper could be a good reference for operational work in areas without local sounding data.