基于LCOE法的风电并网经济性实证研究

Empirical Research on Economy of Wind Power Grid Connected based on LCOE Method

文章基于平准化能源成本分析法(LCOE)计量模型,将风电建设、运行以及输送、并网全过程进行综合考量,通过对风电与火电的实际算例进行实证研究,得出了风电和火电的LCOE,进而通过对影响风电和火电LCOE的因素进行比较分析,得出在影响风电和火电LCOE的因素中,风电的总投资成本以及年均并网开机时间这两个因素的变动对风电的LCOE的影响较大,且存在使风电的LCOE与火电的LCOE相等的均衡点;并得出在满足特定情景的条件下,能够实现风电LCOE接近或低于火电LCOE的基本结论,提出降低风电投资总成本、提高风电上网发电时间的政策建议,以期实现有效降低风电成本,提高风电经济性的目的。

Based on levelized energy cost analysis（LCOE） model,whole process of the wind power construction, operation,transportationand connected to the grid into consideration,based on the empirical research of the example of wind power and thermal power,calculation the LCOE of wind power and thermal power,and then the factors on the impact of wind power and thermal power LCOE werecompared, we can draw conclusions：in the influencing factors of wind power LCOE and thermal power LCOE,the change of the windpower＇s average annual grid turn on time and total investment cost have great influence on the wind power＇s LCOE,and it has anequilibrium point which made wind power LCOE equal to thermal power LCOE;in the specific situational conditions,wind powerLCOE near or below the thermal power LCOE,so we suggest to reduce the total cost of wind power investment,improve the wind power＇sgrid turn on time,achieve the goal of effective reduce the cost of wind power and improve the economic efficiency of wind power.