全球“宽货币”与“紧货币”的十字路口

The crossroads of global “broad money” and “tight money”

自2016年下半年以来,全球货币宽松政策逐渐走向紧缩拐点的声音愈益增多,主要原因是出现了全球货币政策转向的新因素;全球货币政策分化中蕴含着紧缩趋同变化;美联储加速货币政策正常化步伐。欧洲央行和日本央行宏观经济形势不及美国,没有跟随美联储货币政策的变化而改变其量化宽松货币政策,但考虑到宽松货币政策已快走到尽头,开始释放出收紧的初步信号。2017年,货币政策紧缩因素增多,全球货币政策调整驶向十字路口。然而,宽松货币政策的退出之路并不平坦,年内全球货币宽松与低利率环境难以根本改变,尚不会出现全球再通胀及货币政策从宽松走向紧缩的拐点,从而造成世界范围内流动性短缺的局面。

Since the second half of 2016, the sound of global monetary easing moving to the inflection point of gradual tightening has become lauder, the main reasons for which are the emergence of new factors for the global monetary policy shift, tightening convergence changes in global monetary policy differentiation, and the Fed's acceleration of the pace for the monetary policy normalization. Because of their macroeconomic situations are less sound than that in the United States, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan did not follow the change of the Fed's monetary policy to alter their quantitative easing monetary policy, but considering the loosing monetary policy has come to an end, they began to release the preliminary tightening signal. In 2017, caused by the increased factors for monetary policy tightening,the global monetary policy adjustments moved to the crossroads. However,the road for the global monetary easing to exit has never been flat, the global loosen monetary policy and low interest rate environment are difficult to fundamentally change, it is less likely to see the turning point of global re-inflation and monetary policy moving from loose to tight, thus causing a shortage of liquidity in the world.